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Find more Kappan articles in the Subscribe today to access complete current issues online! CENTENNIAL REFLECTIONS: A Brief History of the Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll Phi Delta Kappa and the Gallup Organization have been asking the public what it thinks of the public schools since the late 1960s. Mr. Rose describes the evolution of the PDK/Gallup poll itself and how educators and policy makers are influenced by its findings. THE 37th Annual Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes Toward the Public Schools was released in August 2005 at a press conference held at the Gallup Building in Washington, D.C. Members of the national media were in attendance; the president of Phi Delta Kappa International came from Denver to preside; and the poll's director, PDK's executive director, and a consultant to the poll responded to questions for over 40 minutes. The conference was carried on C-SPAN, and numerous media outlets reported the poll results.The poll was subsequently printed in a 16-page article in the September issue of the Phi Delta Kappan. Major publications, such as the Christian Science Monitor and Education Week, analyzed the results, and some reprinted the poll in part or even in its entirety. Those who started this poll in the late 1960s would be amazed at the way it has endured and grown in both content and purpose. Its annual release is widely anticipated. It is disliked by some, respected by others. A former secretary of education, having reviewed the approval ratings given the public schools, commented, "We will never bring about the needed change if people continue to believe that they have good schools." Today's PDK/Gallup poll is a cooperative effort between PDK and the Gallup Organization, a tie established after the first poll had been published in 1969 in the IDEA/Reporter. The poll was the brainchild of James Kettering and Edward Brainard, two members of the prestigious Kettering Foundation's board. Envisioning a poll that would provide educators with insights regarding the public's views on day-to-day issues, they enlisted the expertise and support of George Gallup, Sr., who was on the way to establishing public-opinion polling as a true science. Gallup, strongly committed to the public schools, liked the idea of an education poll and used his expertise to make it a reality. He was the poll's first director. In a 2004 conversation in Colorado, Brainard recalled that, while the first poll was judged a success, there was general agreement that it needed wider distribution. Stanley Elam, who had established the Phi Delta Kappan as a leading education journal since he took over as its editor in 1956, readily signed on with the understanding that the Kappan would be the poll's publisher. Thus began the partnership between the Gallup Organization and Phi Delta Kappa that has so far endured for nearly four decades. The Early Days In the early days, Gallup convened a national panel of experts to discuss the issues the poll should explore. He chaired the meeting, asked questions, listened intently, and took copious notes. At some point, he would thank everyone and declare the meeting over. Then he would draft the questions, prepare the questionnaire, and direct the polling process. When the surveying was complete, Gallup analyzed the results, picked out the significant findings, and wrote the report. Elam edited it, checking frequently with its author, and the poll was published in the Kappan. From 1969 until his death in 1984, this was George Gallup's poll, and he delighted in it. Alec Gallup, co-chair of the Gallup Organization, became the point person for the poll after his father's death. He monitors the questions and co-authors the report. Stan Elam remained a co-author of the report until 1995, and I joined Stan and Alec in 1991 and became co-author, with Alec, in 1995. The Process Today The poll cycle starts in October, when potential questions are sought from and proposed by a variety of sources. Roughly half the questions are trend questions, whose meaning is enriched by the valuable data collected when they were asked in previous years. The rest of the questions are new and often explore emerging issues. Once the question pool is complete, a committee establishes priorities, picks trend questions to repeat, and frames new questions as needed. The end product of 45 to 50 questions is then sent to Alec Gallup. He and his associates edit the questions, identify candidates for elimination, and occasionally suggest replacements. The discussion goes on until everyone is satisfied. Then the Gallup Organization takes over. It designs the questionnaire, conducts the poll, summarizes the results, and forwards the tabulations. I analyze the data and write the initial report. This draft is then edited by the Kappan staff, and changes are made almost up to press time in an effort to identify the most significant findings and to frame conclusions consistent with the data. The final draft goes once again to the Gallup Organization, where the critique continues. When all parties have signed off, the report is prepared for release. Any public-opinion poll must answer questions related to bias and accuracy. Two questions dominate our preparation of the report. 1. Have the significant findings been identified? 2. Do the data support the findings and conclusions? Give-and-take is the norm, but the Gallup Organization is the sole arbiter of answers to the second question. No finding or conclusion goes forward until Gallup certifies that it is supported by the data. Releasing the Report For many years, the release came first in the Kappan. However, starting in the early 1990s, it became customary to release the results at a press conference held at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. In 2005, this press conference moved to the new Gallup Building. Publication of the complete report follows a week or so later in the September issue of the Kappan, but the results are made available online on the date of the press conference. Press conference questions tend to run along the lines of "What do you see as the story lines in this poll?" When that question came up the first time, I responded with three story lines. To our surprise, those lines appeared frequently in subsequent media coverage, and starting with story lines became a staple of the press conference. As the poll grew in length and scope, we became concerned that many people would not read it in its entirety. Two changes resulted. Each poll report starts with a brief summary, followed by the major conclusions. Each conclusion makes reference to the table where supporting data are found. Readers can dig into the data as much as they like. The second change was the addition, in 2000, of an "Implications" section, in which findings most relevant for school administrators and policy makers are highlighted. Changing Purposes and Uses Brainard and Kettering originally envisioned the poll as informing educators on issues they deal with daily. That function has become almost secondary to the poll's role in policy making at all levels. And the passage of time has resulted in the development of a data bank that is invaluable in tracking public opinion. One researcher called it a "treasure trove." An example of the way poll data can inform decision making came in 1983, after the publication of A Nation at Risk. That report called for extending the school day and the school year. We asked the public about the issue in the 1984 poll, and Americans rejected both ideas by large margins. For years thereafter, superintendents told me that they wished we had reported that finding sooner. "You would have saved us a lot of trouble," they said. That reaction by superintendents leads to a very important point about the poll: the results are a snapshot of public opinion and should not be used to fashion policy directly. They can, however, signal that moving forward will require caution and an awareness of the need to build support. By themselves, poll results are no reason for abandoning or adopting any plan. In addition, the distinction between opinion and fact is not always well understood. Some years ago, when school funding was in bad shape, we asked which programs the public would sacrifice first if funds were short. Art and music came out near the top. On reading the results, the dean of fine arts at a major midwestern university resigned from PDK, saying he did not want to be part of an organization that opposed art and music. As the poll persisted and grew, it became clear that repeating previously asked questions provided an important benchmark for interpreting trends. The Gallup Organization is rightly insistent that any significant change in a question invalidates a trend line. A 1982 question, for example, asked respondents to choose which of three developments was most important to the nation's future. One choice was "developing the most efficient industrial production system in the world." If we wrote that question today, we would ask about "developing the most efficient economy in the world." A choice must be made between improved wording and giving up a trend line. Read the 2006 poll to see how the planners resolved this issue! The best example of the importance of the database is provided by the one question asked in all the polls. That is, "What do you think are the biggest problems the public schools of your community must deal with?" The respondent mentions whatever comes to mind. Over the 37 polls, four problems have held the top spot. Discipline dominated in the first 16 years of the poll. The others that have come out on top are lack of financial support, use of drugs, and fighting/violence/gangs. The cultural and social milieu drives the outcomes. In recent years, school funding has topped the list of mentions. Looking back, funding was at the top or tied for the top in 1971, 1992, 1993, and 1997. The early 1990s were a time when the economy was sluggish and school funding was a problem. Two problems that have held the top spot were hardly mentioned in 1969. They grew in importance, peaked, and have declined to levels well under 10%. Use of drugs was at the top from 1986 through 1991, it had tied for the top in 1982, and it returned to the top for one year in 1996. Fighting/violence/gangs tied for the top in 1994. Of course, researchers are fascinated by the prospect of linking societal conditions to the trend line on this question. There was a time when I decided that the "biggest problem" question need not be asked every year. I had not yet developed the proper reverence for trend data. Alec Gallup was shocked, disagreed vehemently, and indicated that, if PDK did not ask it, the Gallup Organization would pay for it, ask it in another poll, and give us the results. We kept the question! Evolving Nature of the Poll A reader viewing the 1969 report alongside the report for 2005 would be struck by the difference in the number of questions. That first poll had just 17; the 2005 poll had 44. Somewhat surprisingly, although the number of questions has increased, the number of topics has not. Questions in the first poll were all over the place. The 2005 poll was more focused, with multiple questions on a given topic. For example, the section in the 2005 poll dealing directly with No Child Left Behind (NCLB) had 15 questions. The poll's authors have also learned what the Gallup Organization probably knew from the beginning. Each poll's results open up opportunities for follow-up questions in subsequent polls. A series of questions on the achievement gap demonstrates how one or two items can lead to others. In 2001, respondents were asked how the achievement of white students compared to that of black and Hispanic students. Forty-eight percent said white achievement was higher; 38% said it was the same. In a result the authors found surprising, only 21% attributed the gap to schooling, while 73% said it stemmed from other factors. Sixty-six percent said it was very important to close that gap, and 22% said it was somewhat important to do so. Despite absolving the schools of responsibility for creating the gap, 55% still said that it was the responsibility of the schools to close it. If you examine the polls on the PDK website, you'll see that in 2002 we decided to probe what "other factors" might account for the achievement gap. In 2003, we drew on five of the items the public mentioned in 2002, added family income to the list, and asked how important each factor was in explaining the gap. Examining sets of questions such as these over the course of several years can be a very enlightening experience for policy makers. Try it. Bygone Issues Topics surface, have their day in the sun, and fade away. Collective bargaining and the prospect of teacher strikes had its day. The 1969 poll asked if teachers should join teacher unions. Whether teacher strikes should be allowed was asked four times from 1969 to 1981. But collective bargaining and teacher strikes have not been addressed since 1982. Continuing Trends The 2005 poll had 44 questions, with 15 dealing directly with NCLB. We began our examination of public views on NCLB in 2003. The percentage who said they knew a great deal or fair amount about the law grew from 24% in that year to 40% in 2005. A longtime staple of the poll is the series of questions on grading the public schools. When the questions were first asked in 1974, 48% gave the schools in the community an A or a B. The 2005 percentage was 48%. Beginning in 1981, we asked the same question about the nation's schools. That year, the percentage of A's and B's was 20%; in 2005, it was 24%. Starting in 1985, public school parents were asked to grade the school their oldest child attends. The percentage of A's and B's that year was 71%; it was 69% in 2005. Such trend data undercut the oft-heard idea that support for the public schools is declining. It remains true that people like their own schools and have a lower opinion of others. Writing this brief summary has brought back good memories. I recognized the importance of the poll when I became executive director of PDK in 1971, but I was not directly involved with it until the early 1980s. My strongest memories involve George Gallup, Sr. He was a giant in the field. In each of our annual meetings, he would take a moment to lecture us on the fact that "public school people do not do enough to sell the public schools." I always found time to ask him about the political situation, and his insights amazed me. Knowing him was its own reward. Working with Alec Gallup and his colleagues has been another pleasure. I am amazed at the extent to which they feel ownership of the poll and are dedicated to maintaining it as a legacy of George Gallup, Sr. It has been a privilege to be involved with the poll, and knowing that it is firmly established, enjoys high prestige, and will continue to make a difference in K-12 schooling is a source of great pride. LOWELL C. ROSE is executive director emeritus of Phi Delta Kappa International and coordinator of PDK's polling program. |
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