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Politics, Elections, and Education By Chris Pipho Illustration © 1998 by Mario Noche

CAMPAIGN promises, political rhetoric, and staged photos of politicians and schoolchildren are going to put education in an unenviable position in the coming months. Improving, helping, and reforming education will be the stated goals, but in reality education will be used as a "hook" to generate interest among voters who aren't interested in other issues. If past history is any indication, not many of these campaign promises will ever become reality.

Presidential election years are always hectic. When there is no incumbent candidate, the process can produce even more confusion. While candidates at both the national and state levels will be using education to appeal to voters, it is Presidential politics that may drive the state elections for a number of reasons. With Gov. George W. Bush looking like a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, his education record in Texas could become the yardstick against which all the party faithful will want to measure themselves. And once the national media see the rabbit they are going to chase, hundreds of descriptions of the Texas education story will be spun off the original press material, many written by people who have never before covered education. A few writers will travel to Texas for in-depth stories, but since standards and testing will be generic in the coverage, the story of reforms in other states will serve just as well. Political opponents will be caught in a game of "show and tell," saying that "our" state is ahead of yours or my plan is better than the Texas approach.

Selecting a vice presidential candidate -- and down the road a secretary of education -- will be another point at which state education issues will enter the debate. If the vice presidential nod goes to another governor, then the education reform spin can start again, focusing on a second state.

The national media were already onto this story when George Will wrote his "Last Word" column in Time on April 17. In that piece, Will was pushing Lisa Graham Keegan, Arizona's superintendent of public instruction, as a potential vice president. Will used Arizona's experience with charter schools as the hook. The numbers, of course, supported Will's story: "359 charter schools serving 45,000 students -- 5.6% of Arizona's 800,000 pupils." Teacher unions were also part of the story, with Keegan quoted as saying that unions "deserve to be ignored on so many levels." Will speculated that Vice President Al Gore, the presumptive Democratic candidate, would be controlled by the teacher unions. He supported this contention by noting that in 1996 teacher unions sent more delegates to the Democratic National Convention than did the state of California.

All of this makes for interesting political commentary, but it probably does little to strengthen public education in the eyes of the public. If the Arizona charter school story were to become a centerpiece of the Presidential debates, it would be an interesting problem for Vice President Gore, with President Clinton and the current U.S. Department of Education strongly supporting charter schools (see Stateline, May 2000).

Given the strong state focus that the Republican Party could bring to the Presidential race, the Democrats, too, might have to turn to the states for a vice presidential candidate, and this could again intensify the focus on education. Once rumors about potential names for secretary of education start bouncing around, followers of both political parties will be able to keep the education theme alive.

With the national conventions still some time in the future, many will be waiting to see the education planks in the party platforms. Given all of the raw material left over from the primary debates, one could assume that the Democrats will be talking about an expansion of existing federal programs, perhaps with stronger accountability to local parents. Better teachers, better pay for teachers, reduced class size, and universal Head Start are on the list of potential topics. The Republicans will probably talk about changing the structure of education, with a focus on choice and charters. Head Start might get a stronger "reading readiness" focus, and Title I programs could end up with a yearly test of academic skills to ensure that progress is being made. Gov. Bush has also talked about supporting Title I parents with tutors or options to choose another school. Both parties will be strong on parental involvement, character education, stronger discipline programs, and new safety measures.

When the dust settles on both national political conventions, I predict that the public won't be able to see a distinction between the federal and state roles in education. Someone should step forward and tell the public that federal aid to education constitutes less than 10% of the total expenditures for education. Even under President Carter (who created the Department of Education) and President Reagan (who tried to abolish it), the federal expenditure didn't move up or down more than a percentage point or two.

The State Political Scene

While the two candidates duke it out for the White House, education may have more at stake on the state legislative scene. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), the Democrats currently control both legislative houses in 19 states, the Republicans control both houses in 18 states, and the parties split control in 12 states. The big story in all of this is that the margins of control are so narrow in many states that either side could gain control.

The other pivotal matter that makes these races crucial to both the federal and state scenes is the congressional redistricting process. Using data from the census and taking account of population shifts, state legislatures will have the opportunity to redraw the congressional districts for the next decade, and this is where the rubber meets the road. Presidents, with their bag of campaign education promises, eventually have to move their ideas through Congress. A party that can make significant gains in state legislative races will have gained some control over who is elected and what happens in education, not just at the state level, but also at the federal level. In reality, it might not matter who wins the White House if the opposing party gains control in states where new congressional districts are created or in key districts where incumbent members are not running.

Both political parties have recognized this possibility. The Republican National Committee has estimated that gaining as few as 17 state legislative seats and two governorships could give the GOP a 20-seat advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democratic National Committee sees a 20-seat gain for its side if the Democrats can pick up as few as 35 state legislative seats and one governorship. The GOP majority in the U.S. House is currently just five seats, and so even smaller state legislative changes could have an impact.

The recognition that education is a state issue often goes unnoticed in the national media. William Pound, who heads the NCSL, was recently quoted as saying, "Most of the decisions about classroom standards, testing, and issues like charter schools and vouchers are being decided at the state and local levels." He went on to say that any talk of these issues at the national level could only be labeled "discussion."

Additional Issues to Watch

While this "discussion" in the political arena continues, some other topics will bear watching over the summer break. Opposition to high-stakes testing seems to be growing. The protests have included skipping the test completely, filling in wrong answers intentionally, and using the essay question to write a statement against the testing. As the school year ended, the national media were picking up stories about student boycotts of state high-stakes tests. In Massachusetts, at least 300 students were estimated to have skipped the test or to have written essays in opposition to the graduation mandate that is scheduled to take effect in 2003. Other states reporting similar incidents include Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Louisiana, and Florida. In the Bay State, students have even started a website -- www.scam-mcas.org -- wherein the letters "SCAM" stand for Student Coalition for Alternatives to the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System. Since student testing will stop during the summer (except for tests given at the end of mandated summer school programs), political candidates will be able to "discuss" (read, promise) how they will mandate even more tests if elected.

At least one national organization, the Education Commission of the States, devoted a whole publication to this matter. The winter 2000 issue of State Education Leader was titled "High-Stakes Testing: Too Much? Too Soon?" One of the articles, written by Jennifer Dounay, summarized the "stress points" that were causing students and parents to question the validity of assessment and accountability systems.

Summer school for students who score below grade level has been a hot topic in urban areas for the past few years. In New York City, some were estimating that 17,000 teachers were going to be needed for 300,000 summer students. Meanwhile, cash incentives for teachers were being discussed as a way to get the scores up, but Mayor Rudy Giuliani was holding out for a plan that would judge one teacher's performance against another's based on student test scores. Harold Levy, the interim chancellor of the city's school system, wanted to use a statistical comparison of one school to another. As this column was written, the whole effort was being scaled back because union negotiations were not complete.

Union activity -- and especially action taken at the summer meetings of the teacher unions -- will be another issue to watch. The announcement by the American Federation of Teachers in late spring that AFT would propose a national test and rigorous standards for new teachers would appear to be an effort to get out in front on this issue. It will be interesting to see if the rank-and-file members at the college level will support this issue and if the National Education Association will also address the topic.

Some are predicting that this year's Presidential race could become very negative -- even nasty -- before it ends. If it does, it could well drag the state and local races down as well, and education will no doubt go along for the ride. How the media report on the whole event could be crucial. If there is no other story in town, we should all probably take a double dose of "patience" pills and fasten the seat belt on the family hammock before we read the daily newspaper.

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